Trump MAGA Republican 2024 campaign rhetoric “Regime change is a proven, absolute failure.” Yep! Absolute failure costing billions and American lives as loss of life in the region. Defeat or stalemate of conflict in the region in the confrontation with Iran will have lasting severe international disruptions. Agree, this is likely the end of the American hegemony in world affairs, perhaps starting in 2003 with Bush Iraq war. As Australia’s former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull commented “Trump has already demonstrated that the U.S. cannot be trusted!”
"Confused? So am I. Counterintuitively, modern information technology has thickened the fog of war rather than lifted it." This is a great take. Nonetheless, a White House and Pentagon with serious internal failures in judgment and a disastrous inability to advance a reliable strategy with any tactical follow-thru, all hidden from credible public oversight/overview, precludes the possibility of a true take on what may happen next.
It's great that you've found Cushing and its fundamental role. And, the data you cite is "heartpoundingly' scary, and goodness knows it's real damn bleak.
Yet, with a U.S. President who has as recently as April 26 been resounding labeled as mentally unfit to lead, by hundreds of mental health experts in testimony before Congress, we're just racing past the o'slippery slope toward a completely unpredictable outcome.
Your work here and all along has been very helpful in broadening our ability to get a grip how serious this situation truly is. Well done.
Thank you so much for your kind comments. And indeed, it is difficult to see what's going on, but not impossible. We are able to look at the data, and read between the lines between what is being said.
No Kremlinology but MAGAnology (doesn't sound as good tbh).
Yeah, this is not only the end of US hegemony but the end of a six-centuries long parenthesis of maritime domination. If the empire's ships can't even enter, let alone bring order, to the tiny Persian Gulf, that means drones put an end to this long series (Portugal > Spain > Holland > UK > US).
Tech may quickly turn around with AI-controlled swarms - then centralised domination of the sea may come back. Otherwise, we have a future of collaborative safety of shipping, instead of one big cop doing it all.
And it's the return of land empires. China perhaps, the US will be isolated. Russia had a card to play but unfortunately the Muscovite mind can only fathom war, domination or submission. So China it is, unless they screw it up badly trying to take Taiwan. In which case, the voluntary confederacy model, EU style, may make a comeback, and may last, if we resist the power-grabs of brussels (or Berlin, Paris, Kiev...).
Trump MAGA Republican 2024 campaign rhetoric “Regime change is a proven, absolute failure.” Yep! Absolute failure costing billions and American lives as loss of life in the region. Defeat or stalemate of conflict in the region in the confrontation with Iran will have lasting severe international disruptions. Agree, this is likely the end of the American hegemony in world affairs, perhaps starting in 2003 with Bush Iraq war. As Australia’s former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull commented “Trump has already demonstrated that the U.S. cannot be trusted!”
You can always argue how far back it goes. If you'd believe my masters thesis, it already ended in 1944 ;). Would taka long time to explain though.
I’ve been beating this same drum since the end of April, when the longer term economic impact really hit home
This war was a fundamental mistake
Staying in it and not just walking away in April or early May with some face-saving declaration of victory is even more so
Any military analyst worth the name could have told the administration the first
Any economist with an eye on global supply chains could have told them the second
The next year or three is not going to be fun, anywhere in the planet
"Confused? So am I. Counterintuitively, modern information technology has thickened the fog of war rather than lifted it." This is a great take. Nonetheless, a White House and Pentagon with serious internal failures in judgment and a disastrous inability to advance a reliable strategy with any tactical follow-thru, all hidden from credible public oversight/overview, precludes the possibility of a true take on what may happen next.
It's great that you've found Cushing and its fundamental role. And, the data you cite is "heartpoundingly' scary, and goodness knows it's real damn bleak.
Yet, with a U.S. President who has as recently as April 26 been resounding labeled as mentally unfit to lead, by hundreds of mental health experts in testimony before Congress, we're just racing past the o'slippery slope toward a completely unpredictable outcome.
Your work here and all along has been very helpful in broadening our ability to get a grip how serious this situation truly is. Well done.
Thank you so much for your kind comments. And indeed, it is difficult to see what's going on, but not impossible. We are able to look at the data, and read between the lines between what is being said.
No Kremlinology but MAGAnology (doesn't sound as good tbh).
Yeah, this is not only the end of US hegemony but the end of a six-centuries long parenthesis of maritime domination. If the empire's ships can't even enter, let alone bring order, to the tiny Persian Gulf, that means drones put an end to this long series (Portugal > Spain > Holland > UK > US).
Tech may quickly turn around with AI-controlled swarms - then centralised domination of the sea may come back. Otherwise, we have a future of collaborative safety of shipping, instead of one big cop doing it all.
And it's the return of land empires. China perhaps, the US will be isolated. Russia had a card to play but unfortunately the Muscovite mind can only fathom war, domination or submission. So China it is, unless they screw it up badly trying to take Taiwan. In which case, the voluntary confederacy model, EU style, may make a comeback, and may last, if we resist the power-grabs of brussels (or Berlin, Paris, Kiev...).